Navigating the Electricity Market in Alberta: Insights on Pricing Trends for 2025 to 2029

The electricity market in Alberta is showing notable shifts in pricing trends that small businesses and large commercial energy consumers must understand to manage costs effectively. After a period of relatively low floating electricity rates in 2025, wholesale forward prices electricity are rising, signaling changes ahead. This post breaks down recent price movements, explains what drives these changes, and offers practical advice for businesses considering their energy contracts through 2029.

Solar and wind energy generation in Alberta, key factors influencing electricity prices

Current Electricity Price Environment in 2025

In 2025, floating electricity rates have remained relatively low compared to previous years. The average floating price year-to-date (YTD) for August 2025 stands at approximately $0.040 per kilowatt-hour (kWh). August itself saw a modest increase to $0.051/kWh, influenced by some hotter weather periods, but other months have stayed below this level. For context, the average floating price for the entire calendar year of 2024 was higher, at $0.063/kWh.

Several factors contribute to this subdued price environment:

• New supply additions: Increased capacity from renewable sources like wind and solar has expanded supply.

• Stronger renewable generation: Wind and solar have contributed more consistently, reducing reliance on fossil fuels.

• Mild weather conditions: Both winter and summer seasons have been relatively uneventful, limiting spikes in demand.

• Low natural gas prices: Natural gas remains a key fuel for electricity generation, and its low price helps keep wholesale electricity prices down.

  
  

These conditions have helped keep small business energy rates manageable in the short term, offering some relief for energy-intensive operations.

Wholesale Forward Prices Electricity and What They Mean

While floating prices have been low, wholesale forward prices electricity have increased significantly since the last update. Forward prices represent the expected cost of electricity in future years and are critical for businesses planning their energy budgets.

Current forward price ranges are:

• 2026: Around $0.051/kWh

• 2027: Approximately $0.062/kWh

• 2028: Near $0.079/kWh

• 2029: About $0.081/kWh

  
  

These increases reflect market expectations of tighter supply-demand balances, potential changes in fuel costs, and uncertainties around large electricity loads such as data centres.

For businesses, this means retail electricity rates will likely rise, with prices generally in the $0.07/kWh range for the near term and moving toward $0.09/kWh for later years. Understanding these trends helps companies decide when and how to lock in rates.

How 8760 Supports Energy Expense Management

The 8760 Small Business Energy program offers tailored solutions to help businesses navigate these price changes. By analyzing hourly electricity consumption patterns, 8760 provides insights that enable smarter contracting decisions and better expense management.

Key benefits include:

• Identifying optimal contract lengths: Shorter contracts may suit businesses already covered through 2025 or 2026, while longer horizons can average down costs.

• Risk management: 8760 advises caution when contracting for 2028 and 2029 due to price volatility and market uncertainties.

• Customized strategies: Each business receives recommendations based on its unique energy profile and risk tolerance.

  
  

Using 8760’s expertise, companies can avoid overpaying during price spikes and take advantage of lower forward prices in the near term.

Practical Tips for Small and Large Energy Consumers

Both small businesses and large commercial consumers face challenges in managing electricity rates. Here are some practical steps to consider:

• Monitor market trends regularly: Prices can shift quickly. Staying informed helps avoid surprises.

• Consider contracting over multiple years: Locking in rates for 2025 and 2026 can reduce exposure to higher prices in later years.

• Evaluate your energy profile: Understanding when and how you use electricity allows for better contract matching.

• Use expert advice: Programs like 8760 Expense management provide data-driven guidance tailored to your needs.

• Plan for uncertainty: Large loads, such as data centres, can impact market prices. Build flexibility into your contracts.

  
  

By applying these strategies, businesses can control energy costs and improve financial predictability.

Looking Ahead: What to Expect in the Alberta Energy Market

The energy market Alberta is evolving with increased renewable capacity and changing demand patterns. While floating electricity rates have been low in 2025, forward prices indicate a rising trend through 2029. This shift reflects broader market dynamics, including fuel prices, weather variability, and infrastructure developments.

Businesses should prepare for:

• Gradual increases in electricity rates over the next five years.

• Potential volatility in later years, especially 2028 and 2029.

• Opportunities to lock in competitive rates in the near term.

• The growing importance of renewable energy in shaping prices.

  
  

Staying proactive and leveraging programs like the 8760 Small Business Energy program will help businesses adapt to these changes efficiently.

Summary and Next Steps

Electricity rates in Alberta are at a crossroads. The current low floating prices offer a window of opportunity, but wholesale forward prices electricity suggest rising costs ahead. Small business energy rates and large commercial consumers must balance risk and opportunity when planning energy contracts.